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Under
the assumption that Republican states will go Republican and Democratic
states will go Democratic in November anyway, primary victories in both must
be considered irrelevant to the general election. This impairs Barack
Obama’s many victories in the deep South, where he was carried by the
African American communities, and in the Western Plains states. But it also
impairs Hillary Clinton’s victories in such large states as California, New
York and Pennsylvania, all traditionally Democratic.
The
only relevant victories for Barack Obama were Louisiana, the only swing
state in the South, and Missouri, where he won by a narrow 1% margin. Mrs
Clinton’s relevant victories include Kentucky, Ohio and West Virginia, but
also such less publicized traditional swing states as Arkansas, Nevada and
Tennessee. All in all Hillary Clinton scored eight such relevant victories,
representing 64 electoral votes, whereas Mr Obama had only two relevant
victories, yielding 20 electoral votes.
The
good news for the Democrats is that, under the assumption that, in the
general election, the winning Democratic candidate will also carry the swing
states he won in the primaries, Barack Obama, now the most likely Democratic
candidate, will still win against John McCain, albeit by a narrow margin
(275 electoral votes against 263). However, under the same assumption, Mrs
Clinton’s victory would be carried by a much larger margin of 319 to 219.
Thus, here is a set of numbers that clearly defines Hillary Clinton as the
stronger candidate for the November election.
Of
course one may argue that looking at the past is not the best way to predict
the future. We have thus refined the analysis by an alternative definition
of the swing states, based on voters registrations. Independent states (ie
where declared independent voters represent the largest percentage) and
states whose largest group of registered voters differs from past voting
patterns are thus considered swing states.
By
this definition, Florida joins the rank of swing states, as does
Massachusetts (declared Independents represent 50% of registered voters) and
North Carolina (with 45% of registered voters declared Democrats ie in
direct opposition to its past pro-Republican voting pattern). However, swing
states with a majority or largest share of Democratic registered voters have
to be considered Democratic states and their favorite candidates’ victories
therefore are thus no longer relevant.
According
to this analysis Mr Obama is credited with seven relevant victories (representing
52 electoral votes), including Alaska, Connecticut and Iowa, but no longer
including Louisiana (now considered a Democratic state). Mrs Clinton still
has more relevant victories (10) with more electoral votes (111) than her
presently more successful opponent. Relevant Clinton victories under this
analysis now also include Florida, New Jersey and Massachusetts, the latter
two being assimilated to Independent states.
.
General Interest
: Politics
> Presidential Elections 2008 :
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