U.S.Presidential Election 2008, Primary Results, Forecast on General Election

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Primary Result Analysis - Forecast on General Election
Analysis 1 : State Classification according to past five elections

The following table shows how Democratic primary results determine the chances of candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to win the general election in November 2008 against Republican John McCain, under the assumption that the winner of a primary in a swing state will carry the latter, as well as all traditionally Democratic states only. The classification of the states is based on the voting pattern by state for the past five elections (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004).

Under these assumptions relevant primary victories and the corresponding stakes in the general election are highighted.

While both candidates may clinch the election under these assumptions, Mrs Clinton's chances look decidedly better than Mr Obama's.

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