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U.S. Presidential
Elections 2008
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The Numbers
Why Hillary Clinton is the stronger
Democratic candidate
for the November race to the U.S. Presidency |
Much
has been said about why Mrs Clinton would be readier for the executive
office than Mr Obama and even more recently about her better chances to win
the election in November against Republican John McCain. Numbers were
generally invoked, but what numbers are relevant to determine who should be
the Democratic candidate running for the U.S. Presidency in November ?
Both,
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton claim for them the relevant victories in
the primary elections, that should entitle them to the candidacy of the
Democratic Party. Mr Obama claims that he has won the majority of pledged
delegates and is close to reaching the magic figure of 2026 delegates that
would give him the nod. Mrs Clinton defends her position on the ground that
she has won the larger swing states which decide the election in November.
She also makes the somewhat weaker claim to the majority of popular vote.
But
what victories are relevant in the race to the U.S. Presidency and who won
them?
The
U.S. Presidential election is held state by state and, unlike in the
Democratic primaries, the winner in each state receives the full slate of
Presidential electors corresponding in numbers to that state’s
representation in the U.S. Congress. A total of 538 presidential electors
are thereby designed to elect the new president according the votes of each
state.
Past
presidential elections show that many states have a clear leaning towards
either the Republican or the Democratic party. If a map was drawn, the North
East and the Pacific Coast would clearly appear in Blue (Democrat), whilst
the South and the Western Plains states would show the Red color of the
Republicans. Some traditional swing states have thus decided the past few
U.S. presidential elections and, if demography and values have not changed
radically during the last four years, these same states will also decide the
election in November 2008.
But
which are the swing states and who is better suited to win them in November
?
In
our basic analysis, we consider Republican/Democrat states, those whose
people voted for the Republican/Democrat candidate in at least four out of
the last five U.S. presidential elections. Swing states are those who went 3
to 2 Republican or 2 to 3 Democratic. Typical Republican states are
Mississippi, Texas and South Dakota; typical Democratic states are
California, New York and Illinois. Because of the narrow Republican victory
in the year 2000, Florida is considered Republican in this analysis,
although it is clearly a swing state.
General Interest
: Politics
> Presidential Elections 2008 :
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